Plastic, with a lifecycle social cost at least ten times higher than its market price, actively threatens the world’s oceans, wildlife, and public health.[1] Concern about the growing scale and impact of global plastic pollution has elevated the issue to crisis levels.[2] Of particular concern are single-use plastics (SUPs)[3] which make up the largest component of the 11 million metric tons of plastic ending up in waterways annually.[4] Without drastic action, this amount could triple by 2040.[5]
In response to the plastic pollution crisis, countries and major packaging brands are beginning to drive reductions in virgin plastic use.[6],[7]
Several studies demonstrate that a significant absolute reduction in virgin plastic demand is critical to curbing the flow of plastic into oceans.[8] One of the most robust reduction pathways is presented in the widely-respected report, Breaking the Plastic Wave, which found that plastic leakage into the ocean can be feasibly reduced by 80% under its System Change Scenario (SCS), which is based on a significant absolute reduction of virgin SUPs.[9],[10]
BP has recognized the potential disruption that global SUP reductions could have on the oil industry in its 2019 Outlook, where it found a global SUP ban by 2040 would reduce oil demand growth by 60%.[11]
The future under the SCS – one built on recycled plastics and circular business models – looks drastically different than today’s linear take-make-waste production model. Several implications of the SCS, including a one-third absolute demand reduction (mostly of virgin SUPs) and immediate reduction of new investment in virgin production, are at odds with Exxon’s planned investments.[12]
Exxon was recently identified as the largest global producer of SUP-bound polymers (5.9 million metric tons in 2019, an estimated 50% of its total polymer production) and exposed for lobbying against plastic pollution laws.[13],[14] While Exxon states it is acting to “address plastic waste,” it fails to meaningfully address the potential for regulatory restrictions and/or significant disruption in demand for virgin plastic, both of which could result in stranded assets.